I just got back from a vacation week at the outer banks of North Carolina – yet another great confluence of family, sun, beach, hard crabs, tuna sushi and hefeweizen.

The primary beach read this year was “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” by University of California psychologist Philip Tetlock. Tetlock’s research revolves on developing standards for evaluating the forecasting ability of “experts,” and, in addition, exploring what constitutes good judgment and why experts often badly miss the accuracy mark.

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