We just returned from the 17th annual family vacation in the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Just as it seems to be every year, the week in Nags Head was grand, with lots of sun, surf, seafood and cold beer. What set this trip apart from others for me, though, was its "Bayesian" theme.

Stats geeks are certainly familiar with Bayes theorem. And now, Bayes has become very popular in the business world as a statistical means to model learning. The attraction of Bayes is the constant updating of probabilities of what's known. Starting from scratch with an initial idea of where things stand – the "priors" – Bayes theorem updates the "posteriors" from learning. The latest posteriors then become the next priors. Bayesian thinking seems a natural to help organizations gain intelligence.

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