The new year isn’t even a week old, but industry analysts are already predicting how they think the business intelligence tool market will shape up over the coming months. According to Howard Dresner, a vice president and research director with Gartner Research, here are the market trends that will shape the business intelligence and data warehousing industry in 2002 and beyond:

  • In 2002, many users will adopt a staggering amount of disparate and unrelated business intelligence (BI) technologies — largely through applications — adding to BI fragmentation in organizations.
  • During 2002, the extraction, transformation and loading (ETL) market growth will slow, falling to a growth rate of 5 percent to 7 percent.
  • During 2002, there will be a substantial increase in partnership and merger and acquisition activity as ETL and integration broker vendors seek to broaden their offerings in response to increased competition for IT budgets.
  • By December, fewer than 10 percent of Global 2000 enterprises will have implemented any corporate performance management (CPM) system, although this adoption will move to 40 percent by.
  • By 2003, at least 40 percent of 2001 BI vendors will fail to innovate; half of them will be acquired or gradually eliminated.
  • Through 2002, mobile and wireless BI technology will still lack compelling applications and the predominant use will be for downloading reports to mobile devices via synchronization.
  • To become mainstream by 2004, mobile and wireless BI will require important catalysts, including broader acceptance of mobile and wireless computing.
  • Through 2002, business activity monitoring (BAM) will remain an investment for Type A enterprises (leading-edge IT adapters), becoming more widely accepted as vendors and early adopters prove its viability.
  • By 2004, BAM will be pushed to center stage, where faster reaction is key to operational effectiveness, making it one of the top-four initiatives driving IT investment and strategy.
  • By December, collaborative BI products will emerge.

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