October 23, 2012 – Enterprise mobile and as-a-service adoption are expected to keep vendor sales trending upward over the next few years, as transportation, insurance and banking in particular increase their IT investments, according to a new market forecast from Gartner Research.
Gartner’s review of IT spending through the rest of this year and into 2016 was relatively consistent with estimates the firm made earlier in the year. The forecast for spending growth this year is on track with estimates made last quarter by the research firm, with worldwide IT spending to reach approximately $3.6 trillion this year, only 1.7 percent growth over a boom spending year in 2011. Boosts in device spending, data center systems, IT services and enterprise software in 2013 are expected to make up for the lagging telecommunication sector, and Gartner foresees $3.72 trillion in total global IT spending, a 3.8 percent increase from this year. With single-digit cumulative growth expected over the next few years, Gartner predicts global IT spending will hit $4.19 trillion by 2016.
Driven by emerging markets and first-time enterprise buyers, mobile device spending should reach $654 billion in 2012, with an increase of 7.9 percent next year to $706 billion. Enterprise software – buoyed by CRM and retail offerings – is anticipated to almost double the growth in 2012 to reach $296 billion globally by the end of next year. IT services will balloon due to cloud deployments and a range of SaaS, BPaaS and IaaS adoptions to the tune of 4 percent CAGR by 2016 and a combined $162 billion in new revenue.
“It’s a flat, predictable market, but certainly one with areas of opportunity within verticals and sub-segments,” says John-David Lovelock, research VP who led the Gartner analysts on the forecast update.
Taking an industry-specific view, a few markets stand out from the overall IT investment average over the next few years. Transportation, banking and securities, and insurance are anticipated by Gartner to grow by more than 4 percent CAGR through 2016. Right behind those estimates are more than 3 percent growth in IT investments by media and retail, according to Gartner. Health care IT is sluggish this year, but is expected to reach 3-to-4 percent growth over the next four years. On the low end of Gartner’s forecast, investments by government and education institutions rank around the 1 to 2 percent growth rate through 2016.