I once read that, on average, the most accurate weather forecast is that tomorrow will be the same as today. The fact that we still look at weather predictions shows the importance of anticipating change: even unreliable warnings of an approaching storm are better than no warnings at all.

So it is with technology forecasts. Every new development is accompanied by predictions of world-shattering impact, but few live up to their hype. After a while, it's tempting to ignore all the forecasts and simply assume that tomorrow will be like today. As with the weather, you'd be right more often than not. However, also as with the weather, you'd also occasionally face some major surprises. Therefore, ignoring the possibility of change isn't a practical approach.

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