(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists struggled to offer accurate guidance to senior policy makers on the direction of the U.S. economy in the wake of the financial crisis and Great Recession, according to newly obtained records.
The documents from 2010 also help to illustrate, with the benefit of hindsight, why the Fed has increasingly emphasized “data dependence” in its recent policy strategy. That’s another way of saying central bankers have little confidence in their ability to predict economic conditions more than a few months into the future, and so are less willing to commit to a longer-term policy path.
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