What does Aberdeen expect to happen in the IT Security industry over the next 12 months? Read on to find out.

Security Incidents Skyrocket. The number of reported security incidents continues its accelerating rocket-ship ride throughout 2003. Where reported incidents measured 52,000 in 2001, and will top out at just over 100,000 in 2002, the number of reported incidents will escalate dramatically to more than 200,000 by the end of 2003. Worse will be the number of unreported security incidents: climbing from 4.1 million in 2001 and 7.9 million in 2002, to 15.9 million in 2003.

E-Mail Security: Demand Picks Up. Information technology (IT) buyers and consumers cast about for new security capabilities for e-mail during 2003 to counteract Spam, electronic advertising warfare, e-pornographers,and to stem financial losses occurring through this unstructured and uncontrolled portal.

Spam, Spam, Spam…Spam.Monty Python's missive – Spam, Spam, Spam… Spam – takes on new meaning as consumers, office workers, government agencies and commercial firms come to grips with the electronic Spam chokehold that develops in 2003. For office networks, Spam climbs from 25 percent of e-mail in 2002, to 50 percent during 2003. Consumers accessing the Internet via ISPs are shocked with an 80 percent Spam-saturation level. Network bottlenecks and the cost of additional storage motivates spending for more effective Spam- busting software.

Identity Theft: $24 Billion in 2003. Economic losses to consumers, businesses, merchants, credit issuers, and the financial industry shoots up threefold to $24 billion in 2003. This compares with $8.75 billion in losses during 2002.

Show Me the Money! IT security buyers become more pragmatic in 2003 by focusing on solutions that deliver business and financial benefits. Without being able to demonstrate financial and business benefits, some security suppliers look like dinosaurs before the big crash.

Center Stage: Automating Security. Software that enables IT buyers to automate security polices and procedures becomes the driving force for security solution purchases during 2003. Mirroring the need to deliver pragmatic financial and business benefits, automating security becomes a requirement during 2003.

Token Leasing: R.I.P. Authentication token systems purchased under lease programs suffer severe drop off as IT buyers look to pinch IT budget pennies, amidst an array of less expensive, one-time-purchase alternatives that are less expensive and which are delivering better functionality. Suppliers whose revenues are keyed to token leasing will have to change their offerings or suffer marked declines in revenue.

Goodbye First Generation IDS. Network intrusion detection systems built solely on network-service packet pattern inspection and matching are overcome by their own weight and inscrutable log files. Enterprises with first generation IDS systems decide to cut their losses in 2003, instead of continuing to sink more time and money into this area.

U.S. Cybersecurity: Remains in Planning Mode, One Year Later.Unconnected to tax incentives and unable to initiate legislative change, the Cybersecurity strategy announced by the U.S. government in during 2002, remains in the planning stage during 2003.

Cybersecurity Prosecution: Property and IP Focused. Despite an enormous jump in economic losses from identity theft in 2003, cybersecurity prosecution remains mired in protecting property rights, with copyright infringement and intellectual property (IP) taking the limelight. Consumers and businesses attempting to protect themselves from financial damages and losses will be forced to go it alone, without much assistance from an underprepared and largely untrained law enforcement sector.

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