Winston Churchill's Decision-Making Environment, Part 9: Testing the Complete Solution

Information Management Special Reports, July 2007

Mark Kozak-Holland

The first lesson-from-history article (11-11-05 DM Review) looked at how in May 1940, within Winston Churchill's administration, a real-time decision-making environment was created.

The second lesson-from-history article (05-19-06 DM Review) examined the Bentley Priory decision-making environment, at the center of an integrated air defense system, and part of an overall sense-and-respond system used by Royal Air Force (RAF) Fighter Command under Air Marshall Hugh Dowding.

The third lesson-from-history article (08-18-06 DM Review) examined the supply chain run by Whitehall and how Lord Beaverbrook introduced the concepts of agility to improve the efficiency of the supply chain.

The fourth lesson-from-history article (11-17-06 DM Review) examined in more detail the third area, Bletchley Park, the role of intelligence, and ultimately Knowledge Management.

The fifth lesson-from-history article (01-16-07 DM Review) examined in more detail the fourth area, Storey's Gate, the Map Room and the executive dash board for Churchill.

The sixth lesson-from-history article (02-13-07 DM Review) examined Storey's Gate and the Cabinet War Rooms, a collaborative environment for decision making environment, and its relationship to the Map Room.

The seventh lesson-from-history article (03-30-07 DM Review) examined how the basic components of the solution came together and were integrated into a sense and respond solution.

The eighth lesson-from-history article (04-27-07 DM Review) examined how the interfaces for information exchange and the solution was integrated and prepared for testing and operation.

In May 1940, Churchill, faced with an imminent invasion, ran a project that integrated four areas into a solution. These were all at different levels of development and maturity, and included Bentley Priory, the Whitehall supply chain for fighter production, Bletchley Park and Storey's Gate (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Churchill's Solution Consisted of Four Integrated Areas

This ninth lesson-from-history article examines more closely how the solution was tested to the breaking point and put into operation as a "sense and respond" or adaptive solution in readiness for the forthcoming air battle.

Approach to Testing the Solution

Dowding's system (Part 2) could give RAF Fighter Command a distinct advantage in "vectoring" fighters to points in the sky where they could ambush enemy aircraft. This would increase the ability to concentrate fighters quickly, and pilots would not have to waste time and fuel searching large expanses of sky looking for the enemy. Simple in concept, the challenge lay in the ability to deploy the solution but also to scale it up.

The overall approach needed to complete a comprehensive strategy for testing the effectiveness of the solution, in terms of its early-warning components, and its ability to scramble fighters to meet raids. The approach started small (unit test) by testing the reaction to single-fighter raids. It then scaled up to test reactions to multiple raids (integrated test) and those by large bomber formations (system test).

The principal objective of the testing was to test the detection of enemy planes and then the scrambling of fighters. To achieve this, enemy formations had to be detected well in advance as fighters needed at least 15 minutes of early warning to scramble and climb to a height of 20,000 feet. The pilots had a few minutes' margin of safety in racing into their positions.

Testing was critical for Bentley Priory, at the heart of the system, particularly testing the overall sense and response times, and this could only be tested dynamically. At Bentley Priory, the environment was set up for testing the early-warning system and fighter scrambles by using individual radar stations and observer posts as part of the test environment. Friendly aircraft from the northern groups simulated enemy raids by flying over the southern coast to test the effectiveness of the early-warning system as realistically as possible. Even the testers were unaware that the aircraft were friendly.

For weeks, the entire early-warning system, interlinking all the various components and the four integrated areas (Figure 1), was tested incessantly as it was pushed to the breaking point, with squadrons of British aircraft simulating incoming enemy formations. The iterative approach to testing allowed precious seconds to be shaved off the overall fighter response times as the early-warning system was honed to a peak of efficiency of scrambling fighters. As this testing evolved, the RAF was able to perfect a formula to intercepting enemy raids.

Incremental Load

As testing completed, the solution was loaded incrementally into production. The initial release focused on:

• The integration of Bentley Priory to the Group 11 operations centers, and its network of radar, pilots and observers, who were likely to see 90 percent of all action. The Groups furthest from the fighting (10 and 12) were deployed last.

• It was important to keep a broad focus and holistic view of all aspects of the solution, so information from supply-chain indicators was made available to Whitehall (Part 3), and as a result, to Storey's Gate. For Whitehall, the urgency was getting fighter production metrics to Storey's Gate.

• At Bletchley Park (Part 4), all manual procedures were completed and incrementally loaded.

Following this approach produced a first release model, as shown in Figure 2 below.

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