Influencing people, the very purpose of so many of the external actions taken by companies, is elusive. You can't detect influence, even in retrospect. For example, if I send you a brochure and you buy my product, how do I know you weren't going to buy it anyway? How do I know I actually influenced you? The answer is, I don't. You can't ever be 100 percent confident in observing any individual act of influence, even after the fact. And yet, in business, politics and health care, you must predict this unobservable influence.
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