Last week’s blog reported on the judgment/forecasting research of psychologist Philip Tetlock. Noting an overall absence of forecasting skill by his so-called expert subjects, Tetlock nevertheless did find differences in performance based on their cognitive styles. Using a hedgehog-fox metaphor drawn from Isaiah Berlin’s famous essay “The Hedgehog and the Fox,” the author discovered that foxes consistently outperform hedgehogs in the forecasting challenges he gave them.
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